At 30 September 2026 there were 2,932,059 people in Australia on temporary visas. Take out New Zealand citizens, visitors and crew, and 1,828,459 remain. Every one of them was let in on paperwork: a degree, a transcript, a reference from a past employer. The system assumes that paperwork is real. The evidence says that assumption is costing Australia.
What is being sold?
In December 2025, police in Kerala broke up a racket and seized almost 100,000 fake degrees linked to 22 universities. Customers paid between A$1,250 and A$2,500 each.
In Surat in 2024, police arrested three men over about 60 forged degree certificates and marksheets. The buyers were using them "to secure work visas in Canada and the United Kingdom".
In Hyderabad in June 2025, the managing director of an overseas-education consultancy admitted he had "sent 15 students abroad" on fake degree certificates.
These are not rumours. They are police cases, with arrests.
Has it reached Australia?
Yes, and the record goes back years.
A man named Shyam Acharya used stolen and forged documents to register as a doctor in NSW. He gained Australian citizenship in another man's name and worked at Manly, Hornsby, Gosford and Wyong hospitals.
Migration agent Opinder Sekhon was convicted on 17 charges, including dishonestly influencing a Commonwealth official, to get his clients positive skills assessments.
An Australian Border Force investigation into a Dandenong workshop found visa applicants allegedly paying for fake work-experience references. Dozens of applicants faced refusal and a three-year ban.
What does the government itself say?
Home Affairs says refusals rose because of "an increase in the number of applicants attempting to obtain a student visa using fraudulent documentation or information".
In late 2025, offshore student visa applicants from India were granted visas at 59.5 per cent. The rate for all offshore applicants was 83.8 per cent.
From 8 January 2026, Home Affairs moved India, Nepal, Bangladesh and Bhutan to Evidence Level 3, its strictest tier of student visa checks. It cited "emerging integrity issues". Applicants must now provide authenticated academic transcripts.
The government's own review of the visa system, the 2023 Nixon Review, found regulators "play no part in the supervision of agents". It found "non-genuine providers are colluding with disreputable agents to facilitate student visas".
Isn't a refusal just a refusal, not fraud?
That is a fair objection, and the honest answer is yes. A refused visa is not proof of a forged degree. Most applicants are genuine, and the United Kingdom found abuse of its graduate visa was low.
But look at what happens when fraud gets through. Canada's Auditor General found 710 study permit applicants had claimed attendance at overseas institutions that were "non-existent or institutions selling qualifications for immigration purposes".
Of 800 study permits later found to involve fraud, 92 per cent of the holders had been approved for, or were waiting on, further permits, including permanent residence.
Catching fraud after the visa is granted barely catches it at all. By then the person is in the country and already applying for the next visa.
What should Australia do?
First, verify before you grant. Every overseas degree, transcript and work-experience letter should be checked with the issuing institution before a skills assessment or visa decision, not after.
Second, cut the intake hard. A system that admits over 1.8 million people on temporary visas cannot check every document properly. Stricter checks on one group of countries help, but they treat the symptom. A smaller student and sponsored intake is the only fix that does not depend on catching every forger.
One Nation proposes cutting the temporary migrant population by 750,000 over three years. A One Nation-led government, with the Liberals and Nationals supporting it, is the combination that would deliver it.