Reporting Australian migration figures
Four ways Australian migration figures are commonly reported wrongly, what to write instead, and how to spot each one in copy. Free to reuse with attribution.
Australian migration is reported with two different kinds of number that are easy to confuse, published on three different reference periods, with one category of visa holder that is sometimes counted and sometimes not. Four errors follow from that, and all four are common in national coverage.
Each one below gives the mistake, why it is wrong in measurement terms, what to write instead, and how to spot it in copy.
1 Quoting a flow as if it were a population
The mistake. Writing that there are "305,570 migrants in Australia", or that migration "added 305,570 people", as though the figure described the people who are here.
Why it is wrong. Net overseas migration is a flow: arrivals less departures across twelve months. The number of people in Australia on a temporary visa is a stock: a count on a single date. A person who arrives in one year appears in the flow once and stays in the stock for as long as they hold a visa, so the two can never be equal and neither is a substitute for the other.
Net overseas migration was 305,570 in 2024-25. Separately, 2,878,973 people held a temporary visa at 31 August 2026, or 1,825,403 excluding New Zealand citizens, visitors and transiting crew.
The tell: A flow figure next to a present-tense verb: "there are", "currently in Australia", "now living here".
Figures and sources: /figures/temporary-visa-population
2 Putting a calendar year on a financial-year measure
The mistake. Writing "net overseas migration was 538,340 in 2023" when the figure is for the year ended 30 June 2023.
Why it is wrong. The ABS publishes net overseas migration for financial years ending 30 June, and separately for rolling twelve-month periods ending in any month. A bare calendar year matches neither, so the reader cannot tell which period was meant and cannot check it against the release.
Net overseas migration was 538,340 in 2022-23, the financial year ending 30 June 2023. Where a rolling period is meant, name it: 292,100 for the year ending 31 March 2026.
The tell: A four-digit year with no hyphen attached to an ABS migration figure.
Figures and sources: /figures/net-overseas-migration
3 Treating a planning level as a measured outcome
The mistake. Writing that migration "will be 245,000" or comparing a planning level directly against a published figure as though both were measurements.
Why it is wrong. A planning level is a forward assumption set in the Budget. A published net overseas migration figure is an estimate of what happened, produced after the fact and subject to revision. Comparing them like for like treats an intention and a measurement as the same kind of number.
The stated planning levels are 245,000 for 2026-27 and 225,000 from 2027-28. The most recent measured financial year, 2024-25, was 305,570.
The tell: A future-year figure in the same sentence and the same format as a historical one, with no word like "forecast", "planning level" or "target".
Figures and sources: /figures/net-overseas-migration
4 Not saying whether New Zealand citizens are in the number
The mistake. Quoting a temporary visa total without stating whether Special Category visa holders are included.
Why it is wrong. New Zealand citizens hold an open-ended Special Category visa and are not part of the managed migration programme. Including or excluding them moves the total by 732,887 people, so two correct figures can differ by more than a quarter without either being wrong. Visitors and transiting crew are a further 320,683 between them.
2,878,973 people held a temporary visa at 31 August 2026. Excluding New Zealand citizens (732,887), visitors (308,097) and crew (12,586), the figure is 1,825,403. State which basis you are using.
The tell: A temporary visa total quoted with no exclusions named at all.
Figures and sources: /figures/special-category-visa
Common questions
What is the difference between net overseas migration and the number of migrants in Australia?
Net overseas migration is a flow: arrivals less departures over twelve months, 305,570 in 2024-25. The number of people in Australia on a temporary visa is a stock: a count on one date, 2,878,973 at 31 August 2026, or 1,825,403 excluding New Zealand citizens, visitors and crew. A person appears in the flow once and remains in the stock while they hold a visa, so the two are never equal.
Which migration figure should I use in an article?
It depends on the claim. For how much migration occurred in a period, use net overseas migration and name the period: 305,570 for the 2024-25 financial year. For how many people are here now, use the temporary visa count: 1,825,403 at 31 August 2026 excluding New Zealand citizens, visitors and crew. Quoting one for the other is the most common error in this subject.
Why do sources give different figures for the same year?
Because three different things are called net overseas migration: a financial year ending 30 June, a rolling twelve months ending in any month, and a forward planning level. 305,570 is the 2024-25 financial year, 292,100 is the year ending 31 March 2026, and 245,000 is the planning level for 2026-27. All three are correct and none is interchangeable.
Are New Zealand citizens counted in Australia's migration figures?
They hold a Special Category visa and are counted in the 2,878,973 total of all temporary visa holders at 31 August 2026, but are excluded from the 1,825,403 figure. They are not part of the managed migration programme. Including or excluding them moves a total by 732,887 people, so the basis should always be stated.
Can I republish these figures and charts?
Yes. Everything on these pages is published under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0), including for commercial use, with attribution. No permission or notification is needed. A link to the page is the preferred attribution because it carries the reference period with it.
Using these figures
Everything on these pages is published under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0).
- Every figure, table and chart on these pages may be republished, including commercially, with attribution.
- The underlying government data is published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and the Department of Home Affairs and carries its own terms; where a figure is derived rather than quoted, the derivation is shown on the page so it can be checked.
- No permission or notification is required. A link to the page it came from is the preferred attribution because it carries the reference period with it.
- Each page publishes a machine-readable copy at its own /data.json, with the same figures, the sources and the reference periods.
Source: Mindiam, mindiam.com/figures
The figure pages
- Temporary visa holders in Australia - the standing population, and what the headline figure excludes.
- Net overseas migration - the annual flow, the ABS series, and the three reference periods.
- The Special Category visa - New Zealand citizens, and why they are excluded.
These pages are references and take no position. Mindiam publishes opinion on migration policy, clearly labelled, in The National Interest. Corrections: mindiam.com/corrections.