{
  "title": "Housing capacity added against population added, Australia 2025",
  "url": "https://mindiam.com/figures/housing-capacity",
  "dataUrl": "https://mindiam.com/figures/housing-capacity/data.json",
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Mindiam",
    "url": "https://mindiam.com"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "lastRevised": "2026-10-15",
  "supply": {
    "completions2025": 173000,
    "completionsPeak": 219000,
    "completionsPeakYear": 2018,
    "higherDensity2025": 62000,
    "higherDensityPeak": 106000,
    "demolitionRatePct": 11.8,
    "netNewDwellings": 152608,
    "buildToRent2025": 6000,
    "source": "ABS Building Activity, via NHSAC State of the Housing System 2026",
    "sourceUrl": "https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/building-and-construction/building-activity-australia/latest-release"
  },
  "population": {
    "growth": 412500,
    "netOverseasMigration": 301000,
    "naturalIncrease": 111500,
    "migrationShareOfGrowthPct": 73,
    "period": "year to December 2025",
    "source": "ABS National, state and territory population, December 2025",
    "sourceUrl": "https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/national-state-and-territory-population/latest-release"
  },
  "headline": {
    "peoplePerNetNewDwelling": 2.7,
    "note": "Population growth divided by net new dwellings. Compare against average household size, not against 1."
  },
  "householdSizeIsAssumed": {
    "note": "The ONLY assumption in this calculation. Everything else is measured. Pick your own value rather than inheriting the central one.",
    "central": 2.5,
    "scenarios": [
      {
        "householdSize": 2.4,
        "peopleHoused": 366259,
        "shortfallPeople": 46241,
        "dwellingsNetOverseasMigrationAloneNeeds": 125417,
        "migrationShareOfNetNewStockPct": 82
      },
      {
        "householdSize": 2.5,
        "peopleHoused": 381520,
        "shortfallPeople": 30980,
        "dwellingsNetOverseasMigrationAloneNeeds": 120400,
        "migrationShareOfNetNewStockPct": 79
      },
      {
        "householdSize": 2.6,
        "peopleHoused": 396781,
        "shortfallPeople": 15719,
        "dwellingsNetOverseasMigrationAloneNeeds": 115769,
        "migrationShareOfNetNewStockPct": 76
      }
    ]
  },
  "tenure": [
    {
      "claim": "Over 80 per cent of temporary migrants rent, and more than half live in flats.",
      "source": "ABS Census, tenure by visa status"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Around 70 to 85 per cent of new arrivals rent initially, falling to about 32 per cent by the tenth year after arrival.",
      "source": "ABS Census, tenure by year of arrival"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Purpose-built rental housing was 6,000 dwellings in 2025, under 1 per cent of national housing output.",
      "source": "Build-to-rent completions, 2025"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Investors were 40 per cent of new lending in the September quarter 2025, the highest share since 2017, but overwhelmingly for existing dwellings rather than new construction.",
      "source": "ABS Lending Indicators"
    },
    {
      "claim": "When an investor buys an existing dwelling the net housing stock does not change. A rental is created and an owner-occupied home is removed, which is a change of tenure rather than an addition of supply.",
      "source": "Arithmetic of the transaction, not a published statistic"
    }
  ],
  "suppressedDemand": [
    {
      "claim": "Adults per household rose from 2.08 to 2.10 in the year to July 2025. The Council attributes this to affordability constraints, with high living and housing costs contributing to adult children staying in the parental home.",
      "source": "NHSAC State of the Housing System 2026"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Public housing waitlists rose by nearly 21,000 households in 2025, the largest rise in over 10 years.",
      "source": "NHSAC State of the Housing System 2026"
    },
    {
      "claim": "The share of households on those waitlists categorised as greatest need rose from 26 per cent in 2015 to 41 per cent in 2025.",
      "source": "NHSAC State of the Housing System 2026"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Around 311,000 households were overcrowded in 2021.",
      "source": "NHSAC State of the Housing System 2026, citing ABS Census"
    }
  ],
  "rentalMarket": {
    "vacancyRate": 2,
    "vacancyPeriod": "December quarter 2025",
    "vacancy15YearAverage": 2.4,
    "vacancyTrough": 1.4,
    "vacancyTroughPeriod": "March 2024",
    "cpiRentGrowth": 3.8,
    "cpiRentPeriod": "year to February 2026",
    "source": "REIA vacancy rates and ABS CPI, via NHSAC State of the Housing System 2026"
  },
  "limits": [
    "These figures do not establish that migration caused the shortfall. They state what was added and what it could house.",
    "2025 is not the worst year on this measure: it is well below the roughly 3.8 people per net new dwelling of the 2023 peak.",
    "Household size is assumed rather than measured, which is why scenarios are published instead of a single answer.",
    "Demolition losses are applied at one national rate taken from the Housing Accord's own reporting, not measured per year.",
    "A dwelling completed is not a dwelling available where it is needed. No regional claim is made.",
    "This is NOT the NHSAC projected shortfall of about 37,000 dwellings over five years, which is a forecast. Every figure here is already measured."
  ]
}